Tim McKernan, Fri, 06 Nov 2015 06:00:00 GMT
Week Nine of The Hotshots Sports Bar and Grill Picks of The Week
I went 4-3 last week. Shipped my Lock of The Week again, which makes me 5-1 with my last five locks. I’m trying to get you to pay attention to that bright, shiny object so as to ignore my dreadful 24-33 record overall.
While I may be costing you money this year—if for whatever reason you’re betting every game I’m betting—let me direct you to someone who is making you money: Clay Travis at OutKickTheCoverage.com.
He started talking up Bowling Green back in September, and ever since, they just go out and put it on people. They did it again Wednesday night against Ohio. Favored by 21, they ran it up on Ohio 62-24. It’s almost like they are well aware that they’ve become the gambling darling of this popular college football website, and they don’t want to let people down. So, they make sure to ship it each week.
Therefore, I cannot endorse a play more than Bowling Green from here on out. It’s ridiculous what they’re doing. They don’t even give you a sweat. It’s like Missouri and the under, although I’m writing this before the game against Mississippi State, in which I’ve taken the under.
We’re in a unique spot with this week’s picks: the Rams’ game matters. Since Producer Joe and I started doing this five years ago, we haven’t had this situation. Usually picking the Rams’ games in November and December is something we do, because we have felt like we should do it. But, this year, and this week, this is a big football game.
I completely understand if your interest is clouded by the relocation drama. Mine is as well. But, I am pulling for this team and have been from the start of the season, even though I wasn’t sure where my loyalties would be until I saw the first snaps of the 2015 campaign.
So, acknowledging that I’m emotionally attached to the Rammies, take this for what it’s worth: I think this team could actually do some damage this year. Part of that is a simple and straightforward reason: they’re pretty damn good. I realize they’ve played some buttasses over the last few weeks and lack a passing game at this moment, but their defense is incredibly good and Todd Gurley is a world-changer.
The other part of the Rammies Doing Damage in 2015 Theory is that the NFC doesn’t have what the AFC has: a dominant team, or teams.
Who’s the best team in the NFC?
Record-wise, you’d say the Panthers. They’re 7-0. But Carolina hasn’t beaten a team with a record above .500. That’s not to say they’re a poor or average team. It’s just to say that their 7-0 is not indicative of a machine-like operation.
The Packers would be next in line, but Sunday night exposed how much injuries have done to that offense. There’s no question that Denver’s outstanding pass defense deserves credit, but you have major forces not healthy off the field, and a player like Randall Cobb not looking healthy on it.
So where do you go next? The Falcons? The team that’s lost two of three, and the one win was a 10-7 victory on a gift from the Titans? The Cardinals? Well, they may be, but in reference to the discussion on the Rams, we’ve already seen the Rammies go to Arizona and defeat the Cardinals.
Vikings? Saints? Seahawks?
You get the idea.
Halfway through the season, it’s wide open.
As I was making my way out of The Palazzo this week, I noticed the Rams were 25:1 to win the Super Bowl. Now, I’m not saying that it’s the play to make, but profitable gamblers analyze value, and considering the NFC is a crapshoot, and the Rams in November are a different team than they were sans Todd Gurley, I would consider the Rams at 25:1 a value.
And, if somehow that ship comes in, that will make the inevitable 30 For 30 on St. Louis and the Rams even more batshit.
Speaking of batshit, Producer Joe and I are only separated by one game, which makes us the AFC South of football prognosticators:
Producer Joe: 25-32 Overall (3-4 Last Week)/Locks of The Week: 4-4 (0-1 Last Week)
Tim: 24-33 Overall (4-3 Last Week)/Locks of The Week: 5-3 (1-0 Last Week)
Congratulations to our winner last week, Don Jeffries, who didn’t lose a single game. For his efforts, he gets a $25 gift certificate to Hotshots Sports Bar and Grill.
Let’s continue the push to getting above .500 after the catastrophic start.
Florida State at Clemson (-12)
Producer Joe: I personally don’t think that FSU is very good this year, but before we start jerking off Clemson, if would be nice for them to have some type of win. Sure, they beat Notre Dame, but I don’t think Notre Dame is worth a shit either. The idea of laying 12 points is not something I’m comfortable doing, if there’s anything I’ve learned over the years, is that Clemson is going to Clemson themselves at some point and although I think they’ll win outright, there’s no way they’re covering this number. Pick: Florida State (+12)
Tim: This Clemson bunch ain’t no joke. Pick: Clemson (-12)
TCU (-4.5) at Oklahoma State
Producer Joe: This almost feels like stealing. TCU has been getting better as the season has gone on, rebounding from injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball. On top of that, they have one of the 3 or 4 most dynamic players in the country playing quarterback. Seriously, look at Oklahoma State’s schedule, you tell me what their best win is. Sure, the same can be said for TCU, but like I said that is a team that is showing its getting better each and every week. Stealing money. Pick: TCU (-4.5)
Tim: The number to watch on this one is the over/under of 76.5. It’s supposed to be a beautiful day in Stillwater, and I don’t see this one going under. And I’ll go with the Cowboys getting points at home. Pick: Oklahoma State (+4.5)
LSU at Alabama (-6.5)
Producer Joe: I could legitimately justify picking both teams based on the number. Alabama, at home, off of a bye and they better defense. LSU has been really good this year, have one of the 3 best players in the country at running back and are getting close to a touchdown. Since 2008, five of the seven regular season match ups between these teams has been decided by a touchdown or less (3 of the games have gone into overtime). But not this year. Pick: Alabama (-6.5)
Tim: Roll Damn was the victim of fluke interceptions against Ole Miss. My guess is the sharps will be on LSU. I’m going square. Pick: Alabama (-6.5)
Rams at Vikings (-2.5)
Producer Joe: First and foremost, the past two weeks have been a lot of fun, at least from a winning standpoint. Two wins does not guarantee future success. If at some point (and it doesn’t look likely) the Rams run into a team that can stop the run, what are they going to do? Minnesota has the 11th best rush defensive, which is significantly better than the 49ers (27) and the Browns (32). So, as much fun as the past two weekends have been, I struggle to believe that a team that commits as many penalties as the Rams still do, is going to be able to go on the road and beat a team with a pulse. The Rams got a lot of gifts in their lone road win this season and I just don’t see the Vikings (on the officials) giving it to them again. Pick: Vikings (-2.5)
Tim: Just don’t have a good feeling about this week. I’ll be hoping I’m wrong. Pick: Vikings (-2.5)
Packers (-2.5) at Panthers
Producer Joe: How crazy is it that the Packers are going on the road for the second straight week, to face an undefeated opponent and are the favorites again? I feel like this week will be different though, the Panthers are on a short week and had to play overtime after giving away the game in the 4th quarter and it’s just going to be too much for them this week. Pick: Packers (-2.5)
Tim: The Packers are much better than they looked last week, but then again, how could they look much worse? And the Panthers aren’t as good as they’re record. Pick: Packers (-2.5)
Eagles (-2.5) at Cowboys
Producer Joe: I hate myself (a lot of times, not just because of this game) but I am going to choose to believe that Sam Bradford will find a way, after a bye week, to perform better than the 30th ranked QB rating that he currently has this season. Pick: Eagles (-2.5)
Tim: I like the Cowboys’ defense for a daily fantasy play this week. Pick: Cowboys (+2.5)
Locks of The Week
Producer Joe: Auburn at Texas A & M (-7.5): I have to turn things around with my locks. Pick: Texas A & M (-7.5)
Tim: South Carolina at Tennessee (-17): If only Rondo’s boys could have held some leads. They’d be heading to Atlanta this year. South Carolina is playing out the string. Ship it. Pick: Tennessee (-17)
Now’s your chance to partake in the fun and games. Pick the six games we picked and select your own Lock of The Week with the latest spreads from scoresandodds.com. Give the total points of the Rams and Vikings as your tiebreaker. Whoever does the best wins a $25 gift certificate to Hotshots Sports Bar and Grill.