Tim McKernan, Fri, 20 Nov 2015 13:00:00 GMT
Week Eleven of The Hotshots Sports Bar and Grill.Picks of The Week
I’m going to make this snappy.
I’ll give you my reasoning, like Don Corleone turning down Virgil Sollozzo:
First, most of you likely don’t even read the crap before the picks, or even the reasoning for the picks. It’s like when I read Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for my DraftKings’ plays each weekend, I scroll down to the names and skip the stuff beforehand.
Second, I’m in Florida celebrating our wedding anniversary. Nothing screams romance like a short, bald guy making inaccurate football predictions.
Third, I went 1-6 and am 28-43 on the season. I shouldn’t be allowed to make these picks anymore. 39% against the number is not only dreadful, it’s embarrassing.
Somehow, @ProdJoe did just as poorly last week. This is a fucking mess.
Here are the standings:
Producer Joe: 30-41 (1-6 last week)/Locks of The Week: 4-6 (0-1 last week)
Tim: 28-43 (1-6 last week)/Locks of The Week: 5-5 (0-1 last week)
Congratulations to Roger Johns, who wins the $25 gift certificate to Hotshots Sports Bar and Grill. by going 4-3 last week. Yikes. 4-3. That screams to how brutal last week was. But, it still doesn’t excuse 1-6.
I’d like to say I’m going to turn it around, but I think we both know this is a sinking ship. Check out my picks, and bet against them. If you would have done that all year, you’d be 61% against the spread.
Tennessee (-7.5) at Missouri
Producer Joe: First and foremost, this season has been a disaster for our picks. My goal at this point is to get to .500 by the end of the year. It’s really disappointing, but to make matters worse, I play a lot of these games in real life wagering….so it’s been a pretty lousy fall. Last week’s win wasn’t something that I saw coming & now making a bowl game isn’t out of the question. I don’t think the Tigers win this week, but I could see them finding a way to backdoor a cover here. Pick: Missouri (+7.5)
Tim: Got to tip my cap to the Missouri Tigers last weekend on the field. The offensive line was able to run block. The backs were able to move the football. And Drew Lock looked pretty damn good. I have to think the intangibles of The Week contributed to the team playing one of its best games of the year, whether fans agree with it or not. And, if intangibles contributed in a positive manner last Saturday, I will hypothesize it will contribute positively on Senior Day, and the last Gary Pinkel-coached game at Faurot Field. Furthermore, it’s going to be colder than a witch’s clit, and I tend to think that will work to Missouri’s advantage as well. I hope the points are nothing more than a piece of information irrelevant to a Tigers’ win. Pick: Missouri (+7.5)
Michigan State at Ohio State (-13.5)
Producer Joe: I just can’t justify laying close to 2 TDs here in this game. This is the first opponent that Ohio State is going to play this season with a pulse and their results so far this season ATS at home? 1-5. Making matters worse? Michigan State is 3-7 ATS for the season. Ugh. I am hoping for the outright upset here and will take the points. Pick: Michigan State (+13.5)
Tim: I’m confused by this spread. I don’t necessarily expect a Michigan State win, but I don’t expect Ohio State to blow them off the field. This strikes me as a too good to be true caliber play. Pick: Michigan State (+13.5)
Baylor at Oklahoma State (Pick ̃em)
Producer Joe: There is still a real chance that Baylor can sneak into the playoff this season. Granted they lost their game this season much later in the season than Ohio State did last season, there is the argument that they could still play their way in with a good result here against an undefeated Okie St and next week against TCU (which isn’t going to be a good win after all probably). But there is still a chance for Baylor, and I still don’t really think Oklahoma State is all that good. Pick: Baylor (Pick ̃em)
Tim: They were looking ahead last week in Ames. They survived. This week they roll. Pick: Oklahoma State (Pick ̃em)
Rams at Ravens (-2.5)
Producer Joe: Is the QB change going to magically fix a flawed offense? Doubtful. But hell, at least the Rams extended Nick Foles before the start of the season. In fact, either way it’s bad for Fisher. It’s either the OC, which is his guy -or- it’s the QB, and they extended him. Let’s see, Baltimore is a Top 10 rushing defense…bad news for the Rams, especially with offensive line issues. Speaking of offensive line issues, lets see how the Rams have drafted in the top 3 rounds with offensive linemen (prior to the 2015 NFL Draft): 2008-John Greco, 2009-Jason Smith, 2010-Rodger Saffold, 2014-Greg Robinson. 2 are gone, one can’t stay healthy (and the Rams couldn’t wait to resign him after he failed his physical with the Raiders), and one is leading the league in holding penalties this season I believe. Also, speaking of penalties, here is where the Rams rank in Fishers tenure in the league: 2012-2nd, 2013-3rd, 2014-6th, 2015-5th. For a team that isn’t good enough to give up yards (and extra sets of downs) you would think this would be something that would be a concern. Nope. The Ravens place close games, but the Rams will find a way to give them an easy cover this week. Pick: Ravens (-2.5)
Tim: What a disappointment last Sunday was. I can’t imagine there have been many touchdown or more favorites this year to lose by three plus touchdowns this year. No Matt Forte. No really healthy Alshon Jeffery. And Adam Gase made the Rams’ defense look just hideous. And we haven’t even gotten into the offense. The weird deal is that the QB switch comes at a time in which Case Keenum can roll up some big numbers, because the Ravens’ pass defense is so dreadful. But, the Rams’ offensive line is a shell of itself, and Robert Quinn is also not the same guy with that knee injury. The Ravens have had so many games slip away in the final seconds. They’re not nearly as bad as their record shows. But, another trend I’ve noticed over the years is how an NFL team tends to bounce back after their most dreadful performance to play a good game. The injuries and new QB are the variable here. Pick: Rams (+2.5)
Packers at Vikings (-1)
Producer Joe: The Packers aren’t losing 4 in a row. Isn’t happening. Pick: Packers (+1)
Tim: At some point, maybe one (one being me) has to acknowledge that the mystique that comes with the Packers’ name isn’t there this year because of a combination of injuries and whatever diet Eddie Lacy is on in 2015. I loved the Packers laying 11.5 last week. They promptly lost at home to Detroit for the first time since 1991. On the other side of things, perhaps it’s time to acknowledge the Vikings are actually a pretty damn good team. Pick: Vikings (-1)
Bengals at Cardinals (-5)
Producer Joe: Love the Bengals in a bounce back week, but playing on the road in a short week isn’t helpful. See them losing the game, but covering the #. Pick: Bengals (+5)
Tim: The Bengals could win this thing straight up. I’d put that in the 47% to 55% range. So, to get five points is simply a benefit. I would imagine a number of wagers will be placed based on how bad Cincinnati looked Monday and how good Arizona looked Sunday in Seattle. Can’t be prisoner of the moment. Tyler Eifert isn’t going to drop that many passes this Sunday. DeAndre Hopkins won’t be there to make a miracle catch. Pick: Bengals (+5)
Locks of The Week
Producer Joe: Memphis (-2) at Temple: I should really hit one of my locks of the week, I think I handle it this week. Pick: Memphis (-2)
Tim: Raiders at Lions (Total: 48.5): For some reason, I pivoted off my play I really liked last week (Syracuse +28 at home against Clemson, which won) and then went Total Square by picking the public special of the Packers (-11.5) at home against the Lions. My instinct tells me to go with the over in what I think will be the shootout game of the weekend in Detroit with the Raiders and Lions. The other game I was looking at was Iowa (-21.5) at home against Purdue. But, I’ll lay my action on the over on this one at Ford Field. It should cover by the 3rd Quarter. Pick: Raiders/Lions Over (48.5)
Now’s your chance to partake in the fun and games. Pick the six games we picked and select your own Lock of The Week by using the latest lines from scoresandodds.com. Give the total points of Missouri-Tennessee for the tiebreaker. Whoever does the best wins a $25 gift certificate to Hotshots Sports Bar and Grill.