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Inside Word: Your Guide To Wagering On Week 5 of The NFL
By Tim McKernan Friday, October 03, 2008

All right...

 

I think it's time to admit we're in crisis mode on these picks. After a 5-8 weekend last weekend, my season record has dropped to a dastardly piss-poor mark of 26-33-1. That's a 43% success rate, and while that percentage may be good enough to gain some people's confidence when it comes to getting answers right in a Katie Couric interview, it's not good enough around these parts.

 

The Sunday Charge must begin now in order to regain your confidence in me...of course, that's assuming anyone had any confidence in me in the first place. A record of 5-8 again this weekend ain't gonna cut it, jack.

 

And, even worse, Scott Linehan isn't around to provide a free victory each week. This calls for really buckling down, studying the games, and giving you some winning selections.

 

From this point forward, I'm delivering Albert Pujols-like consistency in a Troy Glaus robotesque manner. This will be clockwork, bitches.

 

Colts (-3) at Texans: The Colts had a bye week much like Lindsay Lohan and that gentleman Samantha Ronsing did in Mexico this past week. However, the only strap-on involved in the Colts' bye week will be the chin strap of Peyton Manning as he rights the Colts' surprisingly older, sinking 1-2 ship. The Texans are the botox for the Colts. Pick: Colts (-3)

 

Titans (-3) at Ravens: I'm torn here...because I love the Ravens in this game. Baltimore is a damn good football team. But, Tennessee is 4-0, and the Titans, despite being quarterbacked by Kerry Collins, have beaten some good teams along the way. This game screams "suckers will be taking the Ravens," which means I should take the Titans. But, that's the logic that got me to 26-33-1. No mas. Pick: Ravens (+3)

 

Chargers (-6.5) at Dolphins: Miami is coming off of a bye week and a blowout win at New England. The Chargers almost lost to the nuthouse operation of Al Davis last week against Oakland...and even with that comeback win, they're still just 2-2. Yet...San Diego is a 6.5 point favorite on the road. It doesn't make much sense, but I believe the Whale's Vagina will cover at Miami. Pick: Chargers (-6.5)

 

Chiefs at Panthers (-9.5): Have the Chiefs found success suddenly? Is Larry Johnson back? Can this team keep a man who has taken a skeleton from behind in pictures on the sideline much longer? No, no, and no. It's tough to lay a big number like 9.5 points in an NFL game...unless you're laying it against a Missouri NFL franchise on the road. Pick: Panthers (-9.5)

 

Redskins at Eagles (-6): The Redskins are coming off of a win in Dallas and are 3-1...with their only loss coming to the undefeated Giants (although the Giants other wins came against the Rams and Bengals which is like saying you had a threesome but it was Carnie Wilson and Star Jones). Nonetheless, Washington is a 6 point underdog to the 2-2 Eagles. Shady, shady lady. It screams trap...moreso than any of the other games that scream trap to me. Therefore, I'm going to avoid the trap and return to my roots of going against logic. Pick: Eagles (-6)

 

Bears (-3.5) at Lions: Sometimes I wonder if the Suburban North would be interested in sending Hazelwood East to the NFC North in exchange for the Lions. Pick: Bears (-3.5)

 

Falcons at Packers (-8.5): The Falcons have something going on...and the Packers are already beginning to appreciate the durability of Brett Favre as Aaron Rodgers is having health problems just 4 games into his career as a starter. Taking Atlanta at Green Bay is like taking cocaine at church, but I'm going to go with the Falcons' young star QB, Matt Ryan, over the increasingly dangerous situation in Packerland with Rodgers. Pick: Falcons (+8.5)

 

Seahawks at Giants (-7): Man, I think the Seahawks really suck. But, at the same time, I don't think the Giants are as good as many are making them out to be. They were in a dogfight with the Rams, which is like being in a blow-for-blow battle with Glass Joe in Mike Tyson's Punchout. And, they had to get to overtime to beat the Bengals. But, the Seahawks have no wide receivers whatsoever...and against anybody other than Mr. Pick and Company in the Rams' secondary, that would mean you'd lose. The Giants have no Mr. Pick. Hence, the Giants cover. Pick: Giants (-7)

 

Bucs at Broncos (-3): For years, a gentleman by the name of Tim McKernan roamed around Mile High Stadium and then Invesco Field wearing nothing but a barrell. "Barrellman" has since retired, but something tells me if Jeff Garcia were quarterbacking and Barrellman were still roaming around nekkid in the stands, a certain someone would be distracted. But, Barrellman isn't going to be there, and Garcia is 3rd on the Bucs' depth chart, and so I've got to go with Tampa Bay. Pick: Bucs (+3)

 

Patriots (-3) at 49ers: I wonder if Mike Martz will go into convulsions when he sees Bill Belichick this Sunday at Candlestick Park. Here's what I do know: Frank Gore will have running lanes wide open as the Patriots drop back in dime coverage---even on 3rd and inches---and that J.T. O'Sullivan guy will fake the handoff and throw deep to Isaac Bruce in double coverage...over and over again...just to prove that it was the right gameplan 6 years ago. Pick: Patriots (-3)

 

Bills at Cardinals (-1): The undefeated Buffalo Bills travel to the 2-2 Arizona Cardinals this Sunday...and they're underdogs. Even after watching the Bills go Texas Tech on the Rams' defense in the 4th Quarter last week, I'm still not sold on Buffalo. The Bills have done a lot of "escaping," and I don't think they escape Arizona undefeated. Pick: Cardnals (-1)

 

Bengals at Cowboys (-17): You know things are going well for your franchise when more guys have been in jail in the last year than there have been in the endzone. The Bengals have scored 52 points this year (only 9 more than your St. Louis Rams) and have just as many wins as your St. Louis Rams. You know things are really going well for your franchise when you have a college football-like spread of 17 points...and it's still way too low. Cowboys=Missouri; Bengals=Nevada. Pick: Cowboys (-17)

 

Steelers at Jaguars (-4): The Steelers have some serious running back issues. They may be 3-1...but it's a sloppy 3-1, and that's when they were more healthy than they are now. On the other hand, Jacksonville hasn't looked like very good either in scraping to get to 2-2. Essentially, this is the Vice Presidential Debate on a football field. Pick: Steelers (+4)

 

Vikings at Saints (-3): I'm sure ESPN is pumped about having Gus Frerotte under center for Monday Night Football. How do you hype up a guy who wasn't even good enough to be the backup for the Rams? Perhaps they can find Steve Walsh, Tony Banks, and the great Scott Covington, better known as "that guy that started a game for the Rams a few years ago and began calling plays in the huddle that the other 10 guys had never heard of." It could be a Where Are They Now feature highlighting how just because you get let go by the Rams as a backup quarterback, it doesn't necessarily mean you'll never play football again. It does, however, increase the chances that if you do play again, it'll be at Francis Park with a flag shooting out of your drawers. Pick: Saints (-3)

 

What do you think of the picks? Log-in and comment below.

 

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