The question on everyone's mind in Cardinal Nation is "should they buy or sell?"



After a rough week last week, the Cardinals sit 4 games back in the NL Central and are tied in the Wild Card. Not out of the race by any means, but some remain cautious about sacrificing future contributors in an attempt to grab a playoff spot for an overachieving team. Rather than rehash all the rumors that are abound throughout the baseball world, I went back and reviewed every deadline or near deadline deal that the Cardinals have made since 1985 to get a better idea of how past team's have dealt with the annual circus that is the "trade deadline". Let's look at the findings:



Since 1985, there have been 8 instances of what I would categorize as a "dump" - selling off assets with an eye towards the future. The names that were sent packing by the Cardinals include Bob Forsch, John Tudor, Willie McGee, Lee Smith and Todd Stottlemyre. Of the teams that went the sell route, the average games out of first place was 15, a much more definitive position than their current 4 game gap.



Of the players that they acquired in the deals, the pickings are slim for success stories. Welcomed into the Cardinals system via late season dumps were marginally successful Major Leaguers Ken Hill (for Mike Heath), Felix Jose (amongst others for Willie McGee), David Bell (for Ken Hill) and Fernando Tatis (amongst others for Todd Stottlemyre and Royce Clayton).



The flip side of the "dump trade" is the trade where the home team signals to the fan base that they're going for it at all costs. If the Cardinals were to send a host of prospects to Toronto for AJ Burnett or pony up the necessary pieces for Brian Roberts of the Orioles, there would be little doubt as to the front office stance on the present vs. the future. Since '85, the Cardinals have done ten such deals that took place in five seasons (they made four trades in 2000). The average standings saw them 1.5 games up on the rest of their division at the time of the deal.



The most notable are the ones that brought with them Mark McGwire, Chuck Finley, Scott Rolen and Will Clark. In two of those instances, the team was able to sign their new star long term, minimizing the potential risk in sending prospects the other way. The players given up by the Cardinals included only a handful of Major League-quality players, including Coco Crisp (for Finley) and Placido Polanco (for Rolen).



Amongst those deals, there is only one shining example of overpaying for a fringe player. Eager to add to the left-side of the bullpen, Walt Jocketty acquired Jason Christiansen from the Pirates in exchange for Jack Wilson. Wilson debuted in the Majors the next year and has been a mainstay in the Pirates infield for eight seasons, including an All-Star appearance in 2004. Wilson isn't a star, but his production in Pittsburgh far outweighs the 10 innings pitched at a 5.40 ERA that the Cardinals got out of Christiansen in 2000, whom they traded a year later for someone named Kevin Joseph.



Other notable trades included post-deadline deals that brought Larry Walker to a team that was already 10.5 games up in the standings, and Woody Williams joining the team in 2001 and going on his unexpected run of dominance. And who could forget that historic Todd Burns for Duff Brumley trade? Cardinal nation was sorry to see Duff go.



So what can we conclude from this info?



Conclusion 1: Cardinals fans are spoiled

The tenure of the two GM's that preceded John Mozeliak have bred a fan base that expects significant moves for an insignificant price this time of year. If Maxvill and Jocketty were good at one thing around the deadline, it was the ability to avoid giving up prospects that would eventually burn the organization. Or maybe it was the fact that they rarely had a consensus Top 5 prospect such as Colby Rasmus to use as a trade chip. Over the past 23 years, the franchise has zero "Jeff Bagwell-for-Larry Anderson" or "John Smoltz-for-Doyle Alexander" stories to use as justification for holding off deals involving prospects.



The trading landscape has changed even from Jocketty's recent tenure, when cost-controlled prospects didn't carry the same potential value as they do today. Meanwhile the expectations of the fans has remained consistent.



Conclusion 2: If you're going to trade prospects, make them pitchers

If the team's recent track record gives us any indication of the nature of prospects, it's that if you're going to trade them, make them pitchers. Sure there are horror stories throughout the league (see: Smoltz for Alexander, Kazmir for V. Zambrano), but of all the pitching prospects received or sent packing via trade in recent Cardinals trade deadline history, Ken Hill is arguably the only one that has had any measure of success in the Major Leagues. Prospects like Bud Smith, Mike Crudale, Justin Pope and Blake Stein never made the team regret trading them.



Those names may not mean much when it comes to the current crop of minor league pitchers in the system, but it does underscore the fact that placing a value on a pitching prospect is a very inexact science. Anthony Reyes' fall from top prospect to afterthought demonstrates the risk involved in projecting how a minor league pitcher might adapt to facing the best hitters in the world. Unfortunately, the Dan Haren incident does the same.



Even despite the success of Haren (who was not traded in a deadline deal), if the Cardinals get a chance to grab a piece to help the current club in exchange for one or two pitching prospects - names like Jess Todd, Clayton Mortenson and Jamie Garcia frequently get tossed around as the headliners - the risk may be worth it.



Conclusion 3: Never trade a guy named "Duff".

I think this is just common sense.