Yesterday may have been the day that almost every contending baseball team eventually comes to - the day when the GM has to look at his current roster and start wrestling with the decision of making a trade or holding firm.
It's certainly not as if John Mozeliak didn't give thought to the issue prior to today, but the second big blow in a week was struck amongst the contending teams in the NL Central last night which could accelerate the decision-making process.
Just two days after the Milwaukee Brewers landed what most believe to be the biggest prize of the mid-season trading market in pitcher CC Sabathia, the Cubs went out and got potential star pitcher Rich Harden from the Oakland A’s.
Milwaukee gave up arguably their top prospect for Sabathia and the Cubs seemingly gave up four mediocre prospects for Harden, but - barring injury - the moves will unquestionably strengthen the Brewers and Cubs chances of winning the division or the Wild Card.
So what is a first year GM to do in response?
The goal to this point has been to build from within to put the organization in the best position to succeed long term, but with the success of the '08 team and the always uncertain nature of "prospects", new pressures are starting to mount against Mozeliak. Considering the glaring weaknesses on the current team, if he stays put, the impatient crowd will erupt that he didn't do enough to make the playoffs this year. If he reacts and ships off a top prospect - Colby Rasmus, Jess Todd, Jaime Garcia or someone of that caliber - the build-from-within crowd will call for his head for mortgaging the future to make the playoffs with one overachieving team.
Both sides have a legit argument:
Argument For Trading
Part of what made top prospect Matt LaPorta expendable to the Brewers was the fact that his two most likely positions were LF and 1B, both of which were blocked by notable Brewers - Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Playing in a weak NL and with Ben Sheets likely gone next year, Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin saw an opportunity with the current situation and presumably reasoned that he was better off taking his shot now rather than later. You can look at the team Sabathia comes from for evidence that nothing is certain in the MLB. The Indians were a game away from the World Series last year and looked poised to compete again. Injuries and poor performance have them battling with the Royals for last place and selling off assets.
Some Cardinals fans view that as a cautionary tale for the wait-and-see approach. If they refuse to part with any top talent and either a.) that talent doesn't pan out or b.) injuries undermine the team's chances in future years, then they may have just blown off a perfect opportunity to make another run. God knows if 2006 taught us anything, it's that you don't exactly have to have a dominant team to win the World Series. So why not look at the organization for expendable assets and start shipping them out for talent? Colby Rasmus is seen as untouchable, but if the team has a glut of anything its outfielders. In addition to the big leaguers like Ankiel, Ludwick, Duncan, Schumaker, Barton and Joe Mather they also have names like John Jay, Shane Robinson and Daryl Jones potentially waiting in the wings.

So why don't they pull the trigger on swapping a package headlined by Rasmus for say Erik Bedard who may be dangled by Seattle? Acquiring someone like Bedard would give the Cardinals a stretch run rotation of Bedard, Lohse, Looper, Wellemeyer and, assume he's healthy, Adam Wainwright - pretty solid up and down. If Chris Carpenter comes back and is ready to start, then even better. If Bedard continues to struggle, the team falls short in 2008 and Rasmus becomes a star, the Cardinals will look to fill the void in the system with one of the other young outfielder prospects. That's the benefit of having a bountiful farm system right?
Argument Against Trading
The Brewers and Cubs did what they did because they viewed this as their best chance to win the World Series. The same probably isn't true of the Cardinals. As good as they are this year, they will only add to the stockpile of Major League talent next year. Nearly every key player will be returning from this season and if all goes as planned, so will Chris Carpenter. Those top prospects mentioned earlier - Rasmus, Todd and Garcia - will be ready or close to ready to contribute to the big league team if and when they are needed, plus they may still have some tradeable chips such as catcher Bryan Anderson, third basemen Allen Craig and pitcher Clayton Mortensen.
This isn't a last gasp situation like it was in '06 and '07 and given Bill DeWitt's lack of interest in shelling out millions for free agents, it's to the team's benefit to hang on to those potential contributors who will remain cheap for years to come.
If you're looking for a shot in the arm to push the team to the next level in the second half, you can look to the return of Wainwright and possibly even Carpenter. Those are two bigger names than you can get on the trade market and they are already paid for.
The Cardinals have scraped and clawed their way to the third best record in the National League to this point, but with the Brewers surging and the Cubs rolling, is anyone truly confident that upgrading the starting rotation with what is on the market will be enough to keep pace? And who really wants to see them part with a valuable prospect for bullpen help?
A minor move or two would be fine, but don't sacrifice future success just to make headlines today.
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The one constant in either argument is that it sure is nice to have a decent collection of prospects to be used as trade chips or as potential cornerstones down the road, we're just glad we're not the one who has to decide what to do with it.