Each week, InsideSTL.com breaks down the matchups in the Tigers' contest. Today, we take a look at the individual battles when Mizzou travels to Boulder to take on Colorado.
Missouri offense versus Colorado defense:
The Missouri offense has been a popular target the last three weeks...and with good reason. Mizzou is averaging 12 points a game in conference play. In the second half, it's been even worse. The Tigers have scored a grand total of three second half points.
Fortunately for Mizzou, there may be a cure: Colorado. The Buffs do not rank in the nation's top 73 in ANY defensive category. They are 74th against the run, 76th against the pass, 80th in total defense and 91st in scoring defense. Any way you slice it, that's really bad.
Missouri looked to have discovered a running game the last couple of weeks. Before ignoring the ground game at Oklahoma State, Missouri had 65 yards on the ground from its top two tailbacks. Adding in Kendial Lawrence (who led the team in rushing yards), Mizzou racked up 101 yards on the ground from its tailbacks against a Texas defense that had been allowing 35.8 yards a game coming in. That's solid.
The Missouri passing game has ground to a halt the last three weeks, especially when it hasn't been Danario Alexander on the receiving end. No wide receiver has caught more than four passes in any league game. Outside of Alexander and Jared Perry, no Tiger wideout has 50 yards receiving TOTAL in Big 12 play. The tight end hasn't caught a pass since the Nevada game.
But the Tigers just may have a chance to get healthy this weekend. The Buffs are giving up 230 passing yards a game and are 94th in the nation in pass efficiency defense. Colorado has been torched on big plays much of the season by opposing receiving corps.
The one area the Buffs are going to have to be good is getting pressure on Blaine Gabbert. Colorado is averaging 2.7 sacks per game led by Marquez Herrod. Gabbert's mobility is limited, but his line has played much better the last two weeks.
Bottom line: The Tigers should be able to move the ball. If they struggle to do so against the Buffs, the questions being asked about the offense have little to do with the three defenses they've faced and far more to do with the Tigers' own problems.
Edge: Missouri
Colorado offense versus Missouri defense:
Colorado has played two quarterbacks this season. Cody Hawkins started the first five games and Tyler Hansen has gotten the call the last two. Neither one has covered himself in glory. Hawkins' quarterback rating is 97, Hansen's is 111. No other starter in the Big 12 has a rating below 117. In other words, the Buffs use two
quarterbacks and either one is the worst starter in the conference. That's not good.
The Buffs are capable at times of running the ball well. Rodney Stewart is fifth in the Big 12 with 78 yards a game on the ground. Stewart has three 100-yard games this season. Colorado is 2-and-1 in those games. When he doesn't reach the century mark, the Buffs are 0-and-4. Outside of Stewart, Colorado really doesn't move the ball. The rushing game is 110th in the country, the passing game is 67th and Colorado is 107th in total offense and 96th in scoring.
The Tiger defense was beaten up early and often against Texas. Aldon Smith and Sean Weatherspoon were very good, but nobody else gave them much help. Colorado ain't Texas and Darian Hagan, Eric Bienemy and J.J. Flanigan aren't walking through that door.
EDGE: Missouri
Special Teams:
Missouri leads the Big 12 in placekicking and is second in net punting. The kickoff coverage and returns have not been good, but otherwise the Tigers are solid on special teams. Colorado has struggled to find a kicker since Mason Crosby went pro and Aric Goodman is just 6-for-10 on field goals. The Buffs are last in the league in net punting and punt returns. They have the edge in kick coverage and returns,
but nowhere else.
EDGE: Missouri
Coaching:
Gary Pinkel has taken some heat the last three weeks. At least he didn't say his team would win ten games before the season. Dan Hawkins can't decide on a quarterback and has failed to deliver on any of the promise everyone saw when he was leading Boise State.
EDGE: Missouri
Intangibles:
The Tigers are playing for their lives. If they lose this game, the Big 12 North is gone and a winning season is in great question. The Buffs really don't have anything to lose. They've pretty much lost it all already. Mizzou has dominated Colorado like no other team the last three seasons. The Tigers have outscored the Buffs 141-23 in
winning three straight.
EDGE: Missouri
Final Analysis:
The Tigers are struggling, no doubt about it. But the schedule was unkind. Missouri had the toughest opening trio of games in the Big 12 in all likelihood. They now reach the soft spot where they need to make hay. On paper, this one should be a blowout. The Tigers aren't playing very well right now. I think they get healthy this weekend, but I don't think it comes as easily as the matchups might suggest. Missouri gets the W 28-10.
Gabe DeArmond is the publisher of PowerMizzou.com, the Missouri site on the Rivals.com network. You can read his daily coverage of Tiger football and basketball online at http://missouri.rivals.com.