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Inside the Matchups: Tigers vs Iowa State
By Gabe DeArmond Thursday, November 19, 2009

Each week, InsideSTL.com breaks down every aspect of the game prior to kickoff. This week, it's a the Iowa State Cyclones coming to Columbia as the Tigers look for their second consecutive win. Here is our look at the matchups:


Iowa State offense vs Missouri Defense

The Cyclones have a middle of the road offense, ranking 67th in the country. However, it's not a particularly balanced attack. ISU ranks 28th in the country—and second in the Big 12—rushing the ball. They are led by Alexander Robinson, who went over the 1,000-yard mark last week. Austen Arnaud is also a threat on the ground, running for 479 yards so far this season.


However, Arnaud has thrown for only 1,550 yards and the Clones rank 101st in the country in both passing yardage and efficiency.

That seems to match up well with the Tiger defense. Missouri has had problems with opposing passing games this season, but they have been stout against the run. Only one time have the Tigers allowed more than 131 yards rushing and that was against the nation's top running team, Nevada. Even against the Wolfpack, Mizzou held them to more than 100 yards below their average. The Tigers are fifth in the league in run defense and fourth in yards per carry, giving up just three yards a tote. They held Daniel Thomas to 79 yards on 23 carries a week ago, nearly 30 yards below Thomas' season average.

If the Tigers can do a similar job against the Iowa State run game, the Clones will have trouble scoring many points.

ADVANTAGE: IOWA STATE



Missouri offense vs Iowa State Defense

The Clones have been nothing if not opportunistic on defense. Iowa State is tied with Texas for the Big 12 lead with 29 takeaways. They have a conference-leading 15 fumble recoveries to go with 14 interceptions. The takeaways have covered up a defense that has given up a good amount of yardage this season. ISU rates 83rd in the nation in pass defense, 88th in run defense and 92nd overall.

Missouri's offense played perhaps its most complete game of the season a week ago at Kansas State. Blaine Gabbert threw for nearly 300 yards and the Tigers ran for 135, their fourth-best total of the season. The Clones have given up 236 passing yards per game and Danario Alexander is playing like the best receiver in America.

Against spread offenses, Iowa State has especially struggled. Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe combined for 328 yards and four touchdowns on 28 catches. In other words, Alexander has a chance at another monster game, but he'll need someone to step up with Jared Perry out with an injury.

EDGE: MISSOURI



Special Teams

The Tigers have been good in nearly every aspect, outside of kickoff coverage and returns. Mizzou ranks 11th in both of those categories. Iowa State is a middle of the road team in nearly every special teams category, ranking between third and eighth in most. However, the Clones have missed seven of their 19 field goal attempts this season, while Missouri is 18-for-19. If the game comes down to a kick—as this matchup often has in recent seasons--it's a strong advantage for the Tigers.

EDGE: MISSOURI



Intangibles

The Tigers should be playing with some confidence, though that might not be a great thing. Mizzou has not played two good games in a row. In fact, their best games—outside of the opener against Illinois—have come against Colorado and Kansas State when the Tigers were playing with their backs against the wall. Iowa State is playing with house money at this point. The Clones have six wins and should be bowling. For a team that won five games—including a 2-12 mark in the league—over the past two seasons, this year is already a success. Missouri has much more to lose in this matchup. Plus, it's senior day at the Zou.

EDGE: MISSOURI


Prediction

This is an odd series. Even though Missouri has generally had the talent edge, the Clones have played them tough. The two teams have split the last 20 meetings. Two of Missouri's wins came in overtime. Six of the last ten games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Iowa State is much like Kansas State in that they'll try to shorten the game and keep it a low-scoring affair. Much like last week, this one is about Missouri. If the Tigers play as well as they can, they'll win this going away as they did a week ago. But the one thing Missouri has been in spades is inconsistent. Look for the Clones to make some plays and keep the game close, but the Tigers get a late touchdown and Missouri wins it 27-17.



Gabe DeArmond is the publisher of PowerMizzou.com, the Missouri site on the Rivals.com network. You can read his daily coverage of the Tigers online at http://missouri.rivals.com.

 
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